UK house price growth slowed in November, rising 1.8 per cent year-on-year compared to 2.4 per cent in October, according to Nationwide. Month-on-month, prices increased by 0.3 per cent, taking the typical property value to £272,998.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the housing market has remained fairly stable, with mortgage approvals for house purchases holding close to pre-pandemic levels. He added that the property tax changes announced in the recent budget are unlikely to have a significant effect. The high-value council tax surcharge, due in April 2028, will affect fewer than 1 per cent of properties in England and around 3 per cent in London.
However, Gardner noted that increased taxes on rental income could reduce the supply of new rental properties, sustaining upward pressure on rents, which have been running at record highs.
Looking ahead, housing affordability may improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price increases. Borrowing costs are also expected to moderate if the Bank of England lowers the base rate, supporting buyer demand while household balance sheets remain strong.
Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, highlighted that while tax changes could dampen demand at the high end and encourage buy-to-let exits, there may be a resurgence in wider market activity. Some buyers who paused their plans ahead of the budget may return after the festive period, potentially driving a ‘Boxing Day bounce’ in house-hunting activity.
