This year, however, estate agents say the old rules no longer apply. Many are predicting an unusually busy start to the year, driven by pent-up demand from buyers and sellers who delayed moving decisions while waiting for clarity from the autumn budget. That demand has been further boosted by mortgage rate cuts in December.
“The seasonal elements that used to dictate the market are less relevant now,” says Andrew Perratt, head of UK residential at Savills. “In recent years the market has been driven more by politics and economics. The budget and global uncertainty had more impact last year than the seasons.”
Some agents argue that winter can even give sellers an edge. With fewer homes on the market, properties are more likely to stand out. Claire Carter, a country house agent at John D Wood & Co, says the idea that buyers disappear in winter is a myth.
“We probably have the same number of buyers, but they have less choice,” she says. “It usually takes fewer viewings to secure an offer in winter than in spring, when stock levels are at their highest. Winter buyers are often very motivated. If they are willing to come out in the cold and rain, they are serious.”
Research by Hamptons supports that view. Buyer registrations typically jump by more than 50 per cent from December to January, making the first month of the year one of the fastest periods for homes to go under offer. On average, properties take about 42 days to sell in January, quicker than in November and only marginally slower than the peak spring months.
January also has the second-lowest number of new listings, according to Savills using TwentyCi data, which can tilt the balance further in favour of sellers.
“With the budget uncertainty behind us and another interest rate cut secured, there is clear latent demand ready to return early in the year,” says Lucian Cook, Savills’ head of residential research.
Early signs from estate agents suggest momentum is already building. Jackson-Stops reported that viewings and exchanges at its Alderley Edge branch in Cheshire doubled in the first half of December compared with the same period a year earlier. Viewings were also up sharply in Exeter, Reigate and Northamptonshire, while activity in Chipping Campden tripled year on year.
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, says buyers who paused in the run-up to the budget are now moving ahead. “Momentum is set to carry into January, supported by falling interest rates. After the pre-budget freeze, the wheels are turning again.”
Savills says many homeowners who planned autumn launches but held back are now preparing to list. “We have a large number of instructions waiting to come to market in January,” Perratt says. “There is less stock available, but vendors still need to be realistic on price.”
Online property portals are also seeing renewed interest. Rightmove recorded its busiest ever Boxing Day for visits, although some agents say that launching in late January is more effective.
“People only really focus once the children are back at school,” says Max Cutsforth of Cheffins in Essex. “The second or third week of January is when buyers spring into action.”
January can also be a smart time to market properties that might struggle in a crowded spring market. Amy Reynolds, an agent with Antony Roberts in southwest London, recalls advising clients with a noisy-road property to launch in January. “They thought we were mad, but we had two offers very quickly. That was the January effect.”
Personal circumstances also drive early-year activity. George Pickard of Chartwell Noble says January brings an influx of matrimonial valuations and buyers reassessing their living arrangements after Christmas. “You also get that ‘new year, new me’ mentality,” he says.
For Rick and Cathy Munro, January represents a fresh start. After 16 years in their extended Edwardian home in Winchester, they are selling up to build a retirement home in Scotland. Their five-bedroom house is on the market for £1.695 million.
“The market felt stagnant last year,” Cathy Munro says. “But now there seems to be a bounce in the air.”
Her husband Rick says the budget outcome was better than expected. “The uncertainty beforehand put everything on hold. Now people feel more confident.”
Others are selling out of necessity. Antonella Lazzeri, a writer from Hampshire, is selling her late father’s home to repay equity release debt. “Waiting until spring isn’t an option,” she says. “The interest rate cut is a massive factor. People can’t sit on their hands forever.”
In London, landlords exiting the rental market are also choosing January. One Clapham-based seller says waiting for spring is pointless in the capital. “There are always bigger forces at play. January is as good a time as any.”
Back in Winchester, the Munros hope to attract buyers inspired by the new year. “Christmas makes people reflect,” Rick says. “We’re hoping to catch those who want to make a change and feel positive about the future.”
