Forecast charts from WX Charts, based on Met Desk data and projected using the GFS weather model, indicate snowfall developing across England from around 6pm on January 1. Scotland, North Wales and Northern Ireland are also at risk, with snowfall rates of up to 5mm per hour in some areas.
Maps show Greater Manchester, Staffordshire and Cheshire among the regions most likely to be affected, while up to 2cm of snow could accumulate in higher areas including the Forest of Bowland, the Lake District, the Pennines and parts of Durham.
Temperatures are expected to fall into single figures nationwide, giving the start of 2026 a distinctly wintry feel. Forecasters warn of a cold easterly airflow, increasing the likelihood of frost and icy conditions, particularly overnight.
However, meteorologists caution that uncertainty remains over the duration and severity of the cold spell. BBC Weather said longer-range forecasts are more unpredictable than usual, with differing model outcomes.
“The outlook throughout New Year and into January is even more uncertain than normal,” the BBC said. “High pressure is likely to be present near or north of the UK, but its precise position will determine whether conditions turn colder or milder.”
While conditions are expected to be largely dry with light winds, forecasters say frost and fog are likely at times, with temperatures near or slightly below the seasonal average. Milder weather may return by mid-January.
James Madden of Exacta Weather said a notable cold period could develop shortly after Christmas. “Cold easterly winds and snow showers may become more widespread between December 27 and 29,” he said, adding that the risk of snow had been highlighted in earlier forecasts shared with subscribers.
