The inquiry revealed that probation officers adequately assessed the risk of harm in only 28 per cent of cases in 2024, down sharply from 60 per cent in 2019. The committee said this decline is creating a serious risk to public safety.
The report also highlighted a 55 per cent increase in serious offences committed by offenders on probation in 2024 compared with three years earlier, signalling a growing threat to communities.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the Conservative chair of the committee, described the findings as “deeply alarming” and warned that pressures on the service are likely to increase due to Labour’s early release scheme, which has freed nearly 50,000 prisoners since September 2024 to address overcrowded prisons.
“The Probation Service is already teetering on the brink,” Clifton-Brown said. “Probation staff are under immense pressure in a toxic working environment, which affects both their mental health and their ability to protect the public.”
The committee cited a recruitment and retention crisis, noting that in March 2025, 21 per cent of positions in the service were unfilled, up from 14 per cent in 2021. Officers have reportedly been working at an average of 118 per cent capacity for several years, leaving many feeling “alienated” under heavy workloads.
The Ministry of Justice responded, stating: “This government inherited a probation service under immense pressure. We are addressing this with a record £700 million funding increase, the recruitment of 1,300 new probation officers, and investment in technology to cut 250,000 days’ worth of administrative work.”
The report also referenced a National Audit Office (NAO) study on prisons, which found that drug abuse in jails has risen sharply due to synthetic substances, drones, and outdated security measures. Nearly 40,000 prisoners—almost half of all inmates in England and Wales—have a documented drug problem, with 39 per cent reporting that illicit substances are “too easy” to access. Broken x-ray scanners and damaged window grilles were cited as contributing factors.
The PAC concluded that without urgent investment in staff, training, and infrastructure, the safety of the public and the effectiveness of the justice system will remain under threat.
