A new study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has challenged the long-standing assumption that care homes lose staff to nearby supermarkets and Amazon warehouses, revealing that new retail openings have virtually no effect on care home staffing levels.
The research examined 178 large supermarket openings and 12 Amazon warehouse openings across England between 2016 and 2022. The findings contradict claims by politicians and healthcare leaders that care workers would earn more stacking shelves than providing essential care services.
Key Findings
- When large supermarkets opened near care homes, staffing levels remained almost unchanged, with an estimated impact of just 0.1 additional staff per care home in the first year.
- The average care home in the study employed 33 staff, with changes larger than 1.5% effectively ruled out.
- Amazon warehouse openings, despite employing an average of 750 workers each, also showed no negative impact on care home staffing.
- There was no evidence of increased staff turnover, with leaving rates, joining rates, and vacancy rates remaining stable.
- Implications for Social Care Policy
The study’s findings are significant as the government develops Fair Pay Agreements aimed at improving pay and working conditions in the care sector. With the closure of the social care visa route, domestic recruitment has become even more critical. Researchers suggest that supermarket wages should not be the primary benchmark in collective pay negotiations for care workers.
Why the Popular Narrative May Be Overstated
Researchers proposed several reasons why the supposed “mass exodus” to retail may be exaggerated:
Care work and retail roles require different skills and may appeal to different types of workers.
Many large supermarkets are located out of town, reducing their attractiveness to care home staff.
Supermarkets, though large employers, represent a small share of the total low-paid labour market in a region.
Care homes did not raise wages or training in response to nearby supermarket openings, suggesting they did not perceive retail as a competitive threat.
Addressing Real Recruitment and Retention Challenges
While the study shows retail competition is not driving workforce shortages, it highlights other factors affecting the sector:
Burnout and workplace stress
Low professional status and limited progression opportunities
Challenges around pay and benefits
Workplace culture and staff satisfaction
Researchers also note that the NHS may represent a more significant alternative employer for care workers than retail positions.
Evidence-Based Policy for Care Homes
The study provides data-driven insights for policymakers and care home operators, emphasizing that solutions to recruitment and retention challenges must be multifaceted, extending beyond wage comparisons with supermarkets.
Care home leaders can take reassurance that local retail developments are not an existential threat to staffing but must continue to address the underlying factors affecting staff recruitment, retention, and morale.
